With the 2012 presidential election in full swing, the U.S. economy is front and center among the issues. This much is certain: Whoever wins will be pressured to make big decisions about economic policy—and fast.
Business leaders in Oregon can get the inside track on what it all means to them at the upcoming Oregon Economic Forum (OEF), an annual UO endeavor that has long provided crucial economic forecasts. The OEF will convene again October 11. This year’s topic: what the presidential election means for the economy in 2013 and beyond.
With President Obama and Republican opponent Mitt Romney staking out opposing views on taxes and spending, the winner of the election “could really shape some significant policy decisions very quickly,” said Tim Duy (left), a UO economist who serves as OEF senior director and is an expert in national, regional and global economies.
Presented by the UO College of Arts and Sciences and its Department of Economics, the OEF is a showcase for faculty-generated reports on regional and statewide economic indicators. The ever-available Duy is also on speed-dial for reporters seeking to make sense of economic trends on deadline, year-round.
“In some sense, the recession helped build momentum for the forum,” Duy said. “It made people much more aware of the relationship between Oregon and the national cycle.”
When Duy dreamed up the OEF ten years ago, he wanted to bring the UO’s expertise in forecasting to a public venue where collective wisdom on economic issues could be explored. He envisioned that each forum would focus on individual topics such as transportation or health care, and that’s the pattern that he followed for years.
Then came the recession. Duy was well ahead of the economic crisis that started in September 2008; in the months preceding and following the economic meltdown, he was quoted in dozens of media stories, from the Register-Guard and the Oregonian to the Washington Post, correctly predicting the financial turmoil ahead.
Recognizing that the national economy dictates the situation in Oregon, Duy changed the forum’s direction to maximize its impact. He did away with the focus on individual economic topics and began presenting a range of national and state economic trends.
It’s been an eye-opener for forum crowds, which typically include more than 300 leaders from finance, business, the university system and state agencies. The national data has helped attendees understand how U.S. and international trends reverberate across the state.
“People in Oregon did not entirely appreciate that Oregon was really just a small ship in a large global ocean of economic activity,” Duy said. “These external events are critical in driving the patterns of our local economy.”
Attendees say the OEF is a reliable resource in volatile economic times because it provides information free from political spin—especially useful in an election year.
This year’s keynote speaker is Bruce Bartlett, an economic policy expert and author. Bartlett, who contributes to a weekly economics blog at the New York Times and writes regularly for the Financial Times, often focuses on the intersection between politics and economics.
UO economists Bruce McGough and Nicolas Sly will discuss current conditions and Duy will provide his annual economic review and preview. The lineup also includes Brad DeLong, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley, whose keynote speech on the European crisis was a highlight of last year’s forum, Duy said.
State economist Mark McMullen said the state’s economic and revenue forecasts are supported by data provided by Duy and the nationally renowned speakers at the forum conference.
“Often, the reporting of economic conditions gets drawn into public debate and the data gets misused or misrepresented,” McMullen said. “Duy is able to bring in some economists we typically don’t get up in this corner of the world. Everyone puts down the axes they’re grinding for a day, given the stature of the folks that are talking.”
Brian Rice, president of the Oregon and southwest Washington district for KeyBank, a forum sponsor, said the forum has made a big splash with the addition of economic indicators that are tailor-made for markets such as Bend and Medford.
“With all of the economic noise, businesses are trying to assess the landscape and make sound decisions on whether to expand and grow or hunker down,” Rice said. “Businesses can use the forum information to make informed decisions in their communities.”
-Matt Cooper
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