Tim Duy is everywhere these days. Especially in print. Duy, a UO macroeconomist, is one of the top experts in the state for a blazing-hot topic: the recession.
In the months preceding the start of the economic crisis in September, and certainly in every month following, Duy's name has been quoted in dozens of media stories in outlets both near -- the Register-Guard and Oregonian -- and far -- like USA Today and the Washington Post.
Duy is a "big picture guy" who follows cycle trends relevant to business and government decision-making, and then predicts when the economy is going to be strong or weak, expanding or contracting (and why).
Duy runs the Oregon Economic Index (see below for list of economic indicators), a project he started in the fall of 2004 to follow state trends. He analyzes data from seven monthly economic indicators such as unemployment claims and building permits, and releases the results to the media and online.
Two years ago, he also started the Central Oregon Business Index, specific to the Bend area, and has recently added indices for Portland and Eugene.
Duy typically fields press calls all day when he releases new OEI figures. But even between cycles of releasing the index, he does a couple of 15-minute interviews or one half-hour call per day, on average.
Duy also directs the annual Oregon Economic Forum, which convenes business, finance, government and university leaders to discuss economic issues. The most recent was held last October in Portland and focused on Oregon transportation issues. He also gives frequent talks to civic and business-related groups across the state, with six speaking engagements last January alone.
As if he weren't busy enough, Duy is the program director of undergraduate studies in his department, which means he advises approximately 740 economics majors. He also teaches one class per year, which this year happens to be "Economic Forecasting."
Duy's Seven Economic Indicators
- Oregon initial unemployment claims, seasonally adjusted
- Oregon residential building permits, seasonally adjusted
- Oregon employment services payrolls, seasonally adjusted
- Oregon's weight-mile tax, in thousands of dollars, seasonally adjusted
- The University of Michigan U.S. Consumer Confidence rating
- Real manufacturers' new orders for non-defense, non-aircraft goods, in thousands of dollars, seasonally adjusted
- Interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds less the federal funds rate
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